where we stand
As we enter December The overall market looks both exciting and cautious. S&P 500 It regained momentum after the recovery of the US Dollar Index in November. (DXY) is standing near the 106 level and altcoins are stealing the spotlight. The Altcoin Seasonality Index surged to 84, the highest level for Bitcoin in a year. ($BTC) at the same time Looks like he’s taking a breather. It touched near $95,000 after breaking out from the $73,000 level.
Source: coinmarketcap.com
In the past, December after the US presidential election. It is known to have a bullish trend. But this year there are mixed signals. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% (link) The strengthening of the dollar creates headwinds for riskier assets. At the same time, the full-blown altcoin rally advised traders to recycle capital. Bet on high-risk assets during periods of frenzied speculation.
As a trader Whether short term or long term Our mission is clear: Prepare, plan your trades. And avoid chasing the first drop without a solid strategy. (Because let’s admit it. The first drop may be a trick) in this analysis. We will explore three possible correction scenarios for Bitcoin, identifying actionable levels of downward buying. and highlight the technical reasons and risks for each.
Scenario 1: Sideways range between $91K-$100K
Important techniques:
The recent Bitcoin price movement points to the formation of a new range between $91K and $100K.
The inside band structure of the weekly candle between $91000 and $98000 signals uncertainty. which is consistent with normal boundary behavior (Inner bars occur when the high and low points of a candle are “within” the range of the previous candle. which usually precedes a continuation or reversal ).
On the daily time frame, $91K is a temporary horizontal support level, while $100K serves as a psychological resistance level.
strategy:
Awaiting Confirmation: Follow Bitcoin’s behavior near the $91K-$92K zone to confirm strong support through bounce volume or bullish candles.
Buy-the-Dip Level: Between $91K-$92K, targeting a $98K-$100K recovery.
Stop Loss: Below $89.5K to avoid deeper downside risk.
Follow: Sharp volume spikes and RSI changes on the 4H/1D chart to confirm mixed activity.
Why it matters: Price movements at different stages. It is a highlight of the consolidation process. This is usually in preparation for the next big move. By waiting for confirmation $91K is a reliable minimum price. Traders can take advantage of price fluctuations between $91K and $100K for swing opportunities.
Scenario 2: Deeper correction to $81K-$83K
Important techniques:
The liquidation heat map highlights a key segment of long-term liquidation between $83K-$85K, which could act as a liquidity magnet if Bitcoin loses $91K support.
There is a fair value gap (FVG) between $81.3K and $89.5K visible on the higher time frames. FVG represents an imbalance in the price movement. This usually happens again before the trend returns.
The Fibonacci retracement tool adjusts the golden ratio (0.618) to correspond to this zone. By adding a layer of convergence
strategy:
Set Alert for Breakdown: If Bitcoin closes the daily candle below $91K with increased selling volume. Be prepared for entry near $81K-$83K.
Buy-the-Dip Level: Between $81K-$83K, targeting a $91K bounce.
Stop Loss: Below $80K to consider false breakout.
Monitor: Price action around Golden Ratio (0.618) and FVG lower bound for bullish reversal.
Why this matters: This scenario assumes a move driven by market makers to eliminate overly leveraged longs. This creates an important re-entry point. A correction of 15%-18% from the current price will remain modest compared to the past cycle. It offers a realistic and profitable buying zone.
Scenario 3: Total breakdown is $70K-$73K.
Important techniques:
The 200-day SMA ($67.3K) and the February-November cumulative high ($73K) serve as key dynamic and horizontal support points, respectively.
Below $80,000, the next liquidity group falls between $70,000-73,000 is considered the final “foul order” zone for long-term entry.
Historical cycles suggest that Bitcoin has rarely reversed this deeply during December. But if so The opportunity may also be significant.
strategy:
Stagger Stink Order: Place a staggered bid between $70K-$73K to capture potential candle wicks during a panic-driven sell-off.
Target: 85,000-90,000 US Dollar for partial exit Carrying a bag of moons to go on to $98,000 or more.
Stop Loss: Below $67K, the 200-day SMA is strong.
Follow: Broader market conditions including DXY strength and altcoin liquidity flows to gauge overall risk.
Why it matters: Although this scenario is less likely, But this scenario prepares traders for worst-case corrections. At the same time, it capitalizes on a movement that is heavily driven by fear. Long-term buyers can use this zone to accumulate Bitcoin at huge discounts.
Broader context and December trends
Bitcoin’s current setup reflects the tug-of-war between the bull season. (December is a strong month for risk assets) and macroeconomic issues such as the strength of the dollar. With the Altcoin Seasonal Index of 84 indicating speculative enthusiasm, Bitcoin may remain range-bound as Altcoins dominate near-term performance.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady for the next two weeks adds to this mix. This reduces financial uncertainty in the short term, however, until Bitcoin establishes a new stable range or confirms $100K as a breakout point. Traders must be careful.
Summary: Navigating December with a Plan
In conclusion:
Scenario 1 ($91K-$100K): Range movement likely Can be traded for swing traders
Scenario 2 ($81K-$83K): Deeper Correction Suitable for medium distance positions
Scenario 3 ($70K-$73K): Ultimate crash zone. Best for long term collection
with a strategic approach December can be both profitable and exciting. Remember, this is Santa season. This is a time for optimism. But it also includes discipline. Invest wisely, stick to your plan, and let the market come to you.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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